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Articles and Analysies ÇáÕÝÍÉ ÇáÚÑÈíÉ Last Updated: Oct 27, 2009 - 9:33:43 PM

The future of the South Sudan by Justin Laku
Sudaneseonline.com

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                                                The future of the South Sudan

                                      

On January 9th, 2005, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) and the Khartoum regime (NIF) signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Kenya, after twenty three years of Sudan’s second civil war; one which took over two millions lives and internally displaced more than six million people. The civil war in the Sudan is one of the Africa ’s longest, bloodiest and most inflexible conflicts.

Civil wars have been fought in Uganda (1981-86), Ethiopia (1974-91), Rwanda (1990-94), Liberia (1990-93), and Mozambique (1980-93.   These were expressions of oppressed or excluded groups fighting their way from the periphery into power at the center to free themselves from oppressive rule by those who had been controlling the center.

In Southern Sudan , power sharing has been absent with regards to the separation of religion from the state, sharing of the natural resources, equality and justice among the Sudanese people.   Despite that the CPA, power is still centralised in Khartoum ; a point of tension and conflict is the identity of Sudan as an African nation.   Despite its geographic location in the Continent and majority African population, the majority of power is held by 39% of its population who are Arabs. These are the main reasons behind the first and the second civil wars in 1950s, 1960s, and 1983s. Oil, Slavery and war against terrorism have placed the Sudan on the CIA , FBI and international community’s scrutiny, particularly with discovery of oil in the Southern Sudan in 1979. The Khartoum regime gave Osama Bin-Laden save haven in the Sudan , and Bin Laden planned September 11th in Sudan with the support of Khartoum regime and its officials.

In the four years since the SPLA/M assumed power in the Southern Sudan , the security situation has not seen significant improvement.   The Lord’s Resistance Army’s (LRA) military activities are still active in Central and Western Equatorial States .   The Government of the South Sudan (GoSS) has failed to protect its citizens, and has been unable to disarm the Dinka tribesmen who continue to terrorize Central, Eastern, and Western Equatorial civilians in Magwi County, Nimule, Yei, Yambio, and other part of Great Equatorial; furthermore, the Dinka tribesmen deliberately allowed their cattles to grazed on the great Equatorial farming land.    The people of South Sudan are divided by power as well.

Most of the GOSS cabinet, deputies ministers, attorney generals, as well as the senior officers in the police force, prisons, military, civil and foreign service are from the Dinka tribe, including founder of the SPLA/M and the president of the South Sudan. Dinkas in the SPLA constitute the largest portion of the military personnel’s within the movement. The Dinka are able to use their domination to suppress other Southern Sudanese tribes instead or share the power with them just as like Arabs did before 2005. The Dinkas plan appear to be gain control over the natural resources of South, to rule over the rest of the South, kill, and imprison anyone or group who opposes the ill-conceived notion of “Dinka Born to Rule”.   The classic example is the appointment of hard-line proponent of Dinkas nationalism Able Alier as a ‘born to rule advisor’ to Salva Kiri Mayardit, for the purposes of implementing the policy of Dinkas domination over others tribes.

Since the beginning of 2009, Eastern & Central Equatorial civilians have been killed, the Great Equatorial girls and Women have suffered rape.   The SPLA high officials have been appropriating Central & Eastern Equatorial lands and selling them to Somalian businessmen - leaving the land owners homeless and displaced. The culture of corruption is rampant with development money leaving South Sudan and end up in the foreign accounts in Canada , the U.S.A, Europe , and Australia .    

The pattern of events is symptomatic of the lack of good governance and leadership within the SPLA/M. The GoSS has failed in educating the public in the importance of the democracy, fair elections, good governance whose components include accountability, legitimacy, democracy, equality, inclusiveness, transparency, coherency (conflict resolution), effectiveness and efficiency, and rule of law. The SPLA/M under the Dinkas regime have practiced democratic tribalism to gain greater power, rather than serve all of South Sudan through good governance. The international community and the donor states must intervene before it is too late.

With regards to the future of South Sudan and the referendum on sovereignty of the South; there appear to be two possible lines of development. One possibility is that the Dinkas’ partnership and cooperation of the NIF confers authority and power with the Dinkas to rule the South.   The second possibility is that the bid to block the referendum in South succeeds, and the South remains part with the North. However, indications on the ground suggest that the referendum will take place but is not likely to be fair.   In this case, civil war is likely to be the outcome.

Policy recommendations:

What could be done to rescue the situation in the South Sudan ? Donor states must put pressure on the SPLA leadership to implement their commitments to good governance and full representation of all Southern Sudan tribes in the GoSS;

The European Union (EU), the International Criminal Court (ICC), the human rights organizations, the US State department, and the United Nations human right commission, must form a South Sudan-Fact Finding Mission Human Rights Committee to investigate the crimes committed against the great Equatorial citizens;

The rights of the victims must be protected, and those committing crimes against humanity be brought to justice. All the lands taken by force from the great Equatorial must be giving back to their owners.   

“The racial theory brought Hitler and his friends to conclusion that the Germans as the only fully valuable nation, must rule over other nations. The English, racial theory brings ChurchHill and his friends to the conclusion that nations speaking the English language, being the only fully valuable nations, should rule over the remaining nations of the world”. The same theory brought Salva Kiir Mayardit and his friends to conclusion that people speaking Dinka language are the  only people worthy to rule over the remaining of the South Sudan. Donor states and the international community at large must take these recommendations seriously.

What South Sudan needs an understanding and realization of the Baganda concept of edbemde ery’obuntu - the democracy of freedom for a community and its individual members to be treated in a humane and civil manner? This would include freedom from severe political or social disorder, freedom for ordinary individuals to have their complaints and opinions heard by those in power, and fair and equal treatment by authorities. Equality of treatment is paradoxically based on the disorder and injustice produce by inequality.

Justin Laku

University of Ottawa

Ottawa , Canada

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     

 


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  • FASTING RAMADAN IN A MONASTERY: Mohammad Ali Salih
  • It is Darfur Again and the Misery Goes On By E. Ablorh-Odjidja
  • SLM request to delay Libya talks by Tag Elkhazin,
  • THE HONOURABLE WISE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD/Ali Mahmoud Hassanein
  • Will the united Sudan remain attractive for all under the NCP regime?! By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • The Value of Peace in Sudan: From Ki-Moon to International Wisemen By James Okuk Solomon
  • South Sudan Egyptians relations / John Lawrence Morbe Joseph
  • Will the Failed Abuja Diplomacy Be Repeated in Libya? By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Why a reality check is needed on Darfur by Anne Bartlett
  • United, Cairo's poor and poorer get heard
  • A Message from Ajik (Ajang) Union in North American To: Commander and Comrade Daniel Kodi by Fadul H.Haimad
  • What Happened To Gen. Kiir First Vice Presidency Position? / by Isaiah Abraham
  • Eritrea in the Sudan's president's office, By: Mohamed Osman Ibrahim
  • UN Ban Ki-Moon and his Drought Thesis of Darfur Conflict By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom, Ph.D.
  • UN Secretary General: Mission Impossible By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Old Habits Die Hard: The National Congress Party is Back to Its Outmoded Tactics—By: Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Greatest Marginalization of All Time/Isam Siddig
  • Darfur: A Little Less Talk, A Little More Action by Anne Bartlett
  • Muslims eye America by MOHAMMAD ALI SALIH
  • General Elections in Sudan by the Year 2009: A Fact or a Fiction?/By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Alsalkeen Charitable Organization General Secretary. /By Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Cons and Cues About The Sudanese Forthcoming General Election/Isaiah Abraham
  • Animal’s rights are also rights/Isaiah Abraham
  • SPLM Official Counters the Recent Remarks of the NCP Official over Abyie and Darfour Translated by MAJOK NIKODEMO AROU
  • The Arab Congregation and the Ideology of Genocide in Darfur, Sudan By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom, Ph.D.
  • Catholics Led to Hell/Written by Daniel Deng Monyde,
  • Keep away from Darfour, Mustafa Osman Ismail, warns the SPLM Translated by Majok Nikodemo Arou
  • Abyei Protocol. by Mayen. D. Ater
  • Darfur Actors and the absence of Road Maps By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Judiciary Reshuffle Ineptly Calculated by Daniel Deng Monyde
  • Stop the Genocide and give the security then peace will come/Hamed Mohamedain Omer
  • THE AMERICANS AND ME (2): ISLAM Mohammad Ali Salih, Washington, “Asharq Alawsat
  • Unwanted in Israel By Sherine Tadros at the Egyptian-Israeli border
  • ISSUES that Rose From the Sudanese Ambassador Press Conference By Jwothab Amum Ajak
  • Al Bashir Slams on Campaigners against Sudan, Reviews Political Developments By: Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Was Dr. John Garang Assassinated?/Daniel Deng Monyde,
  • What had happened in Darfur?/Mahmoud E. Yousif
  • Abie conflict The Inferno of Nivasha or the Paradise of Peace by Dr. S.M.Eldebailo
  • TEXT- Conclusions of AU-UN, Sudan on the Hybrid Operations
  • Alfashir is nearer than Kampala: JEM/NRF Commends New SPLM Stance on Darfur/By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom
  • COMSARY by SALMAN OMER MAHMOUD
  • Sudan: The Politics of Naming - Genocide, Civil War, Insurgency/Prof. Mahmood Mamdani
  • US to Sanction Dr. Khalil Ibrahim! A Statement/Gammali Hasan Galal Eldin
  • Can Darfur Survive the CPA?/Abdullahi El-Tom and Mahmoud Abbaker Suleiman
  • GOD OR AMERICA: WHO IS FIRST? 8 DIFFERENT OPINIONS/Mohammad Ali Salih, Washington, “Asharq Alawsat”
  • It would be Unwise to think that a United Sudan Properly Functions within the Main Frameworks of the Phenomenon of Eastern African Development./Urban T. Kir
  • Darfur Crisis: Mediation Failure (2)/Ahmed M. Mohamedain
  • Government of Sudan and Darfur crisis/Musa Yakub Daoud
  • President Bush "Hurts" for Darfur Darfur Is Safer than US Urban Cities/Ali Baghdadi
  • Our Vision on the prospect of peace to end the Darfur tragedy/By Dr. M.A.Suleiman
  • Lies, Damned Lies and the Darfur Crisis by Anne Bartlett is a Director of the Darfur Centre for Human Rights and Development
  • International Media Ignore Sudanese Voices /AfricaFocus (Washington, DC)
  • Sudanese cyber rally forces website to remove controversial ad by Wasil Ali
  • why war in abyaii by bakhit mohd humaidan
  • Al Salikeen Earmarks 1.2 Billion Pounds for Service Schemes by Al Sammani Awadallah
  • A CALL TO ALL THE PEOPLE OF SOUTH SUDAN/By James Ogilo Agor Agokwech-Rochester, MN USA
  • Will the Quartet Summit Contradict with the UN, AU Role in Darfur By: Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Sudan Vision Carries Out a Survey on Pros and Cons of Humanitarian Aid in Sudan By: Al-Sammani Awadallah
  • Al Khatim Adlan’s legacy of wisdom and vision/ahmed elzobier
  • WHEN THEY BEG FOR UNITY by Mack Awer Riak
  • The Genocide Glitterati by Anne Bartlett
  • Darfur-Darfur Dialogue Will Not be Held Hostage by Hostile Armed Factions", Says Dr. Omar Adam
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains/by Nuba Mountains Democratic Forum/Nour Tawir
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains by Nuba_Mountains Democratic Forum by Samie A Djudo
  • RIFT KAKUMA HITS BY VALLEY FEVER. By;Mabior Mayom Mayom
  • How Dr. Garang wanted Abyei to be? (1) /By Akol Miyen Kuol
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains by Nuba Mountains Democratic Forum
  • The Doomsday Cult/Ahmed Sam, human rights activist.
  • China must emulate AU wisdom in Sudan by Simon Roughneen for ISN
  • An article introducing our country Sudan by Maha esmeal ahmed esmeal
  • It is a time for all Peace forces to take action By : Matur Aciek
  • Kiir stood to his pledge of no reverse gear/ BY MAJOK NIKODEMO AROU
  • IT IS TIME FOR THE SPLA TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN AIR FORCE/Maker Costa
  • Unwitting Party to Genocide By Stephen Rademaker
  • SPLA, STANDS STRONG AND PROUD!/By Hakim Makuer Gol
  • January 9th- a Day of Peace and Full Independence/By Dr. Mawien Akot
  • Muslim cadet clear on identity/YVETTE CABRERA
  • 2008 General Elections: What Are The Scenarios Awaiting Us?/Maker Costa-Syracuse New York
  • ’s NCP is planning to rig elections at census level/By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Criticism to the Global War Against International Terrorism, (G-WAIT) by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Swindles of Modern Liberal Democracy by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • Peaceful Conflict Resolution & the War on Terror The cases of Sudan and Iraq by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Jinjaweed Leader By : kuku kadia
  • UA-GSC Sudan Resolution Passes/By Marie Y. Thibault
  • All About Darfur: Is Sudan in a culture of war? By Virginie Wembey
  • AU Recommends Six Month Extension for its Mission By: Al Sammani Awadallah / IOL
  • No South/North border and ABC: CPA is dead.By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Darfur destruction is Sudan’s al-Bashir’s Shame/By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Relationship Between Economic Mismanagement & Social Instability by Eng. Tarig M.M.K. Anter
  • Fake Modern Religions Are Fighting Faith by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Ideological Structure of The Conservative Professional Nationalist Party & System by Eng. Tarig M.M.K. Anter,
  • 'Lost Boys of Sudan' By: Kristin Boyd , Staff Writer
  • Sudan's al-Bashir and Palace are imperfect Match By Sabrino Majok Majok
  • Frank Wolf: Divest from Sudan By U.S. Rep. Frank Wolf (R-10)
  • Sudanese Native Relates Horrors of His Childhood/By Konstantin Shishkin
  • General Congress of JEM Asserts Creation of a political Party/Professor Mahmoud Abakar Sulaiman
  • Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and the Litany of AU Deceit in Darfur/Dr. Abdullahi Osman El-Tom
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  • Reign of Corruption and political stagnation By Andrew Bak
  • Current American Planning Strategies vs. Planning Strategies of the 50s’/By: Adil Bala (PhD)*
  • Free Will, JEM Peace Wing Sign Political and Military Protocol By Al-Sammani Awadallah
  • Only Favourable Humanitarian and Security Conditions are Needed in Darfur By: Al Sammani Awadalla
  • A call to Abolish Sha’ria Law in South Sudan: GOSS must take a Lead
  • Race and colour consciousness art or is it ... Religions? Hatim Elmadani
  • Who are Landless People in Sudan? Mack Awer -Cairo
  • Darfur: Diplomacy and its Discontents by Anne Bartlett
  • Why Egypt won't press Sudan: the Nile By Dan Murphy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
  • Pathological Delusions by Ahmed Elzobier
  • NIF is determined to kill CPA By Sabrino Majok Majok
  • Darfur - Solution Must Come From Africans By Mohammed Eisa Ismail
  • The responsibility to protect Darfur By William G. O'Neill
  • Sudanese go tech savvy By Cheryl Lecesse
  • Sorrow in Sudan By Vivian Ho