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Articles and Analysies ÇáÕÝÍÉ ÇáÚÑÈíÉ Last Updated: Oct 27, 2009 - 9:33:43 PM

Sudan needs reality check By Hassan Ibrahim
Sudaneseonline.com

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Analysis: Sudan needs reality check
By Hassan Ibrahim

 

 

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The SPLA could take up arms again if southern Sudan does not benefit from peace [AP]

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the Sudanese government and the Sudan's People Liberation Movement signed on January 9, 2005 ended years of bloody warfare which had effectively split the country in two.

But it is a peculiar contract between the once-warring factions.

On the one hand it is supposed to be an agreement between a rebel movement and the national government. Instead, it has become a power-sharing deal between the National Congress Party and the SPLM, as if the whole North is represented by the National Congress and the whole South is represented by the SPLM.
 
It is true that many Sudanese political parties had welcomed the CPA. They thought the National Congress was finally willing to democratise the country and share power. But that did not happen. 

The new formula had place only for the signatories to the agreement. Nevertheless, none of the former Northern opposition parties caused any serious problems to the new partners and they settled for crumbs off the CPA dining table. 
 
While goodwill and ceremony accompanied the signing of the CPA, the optimism faded a few months later with the death of John Garang, SPLM leader, in a helicopter crash on July 31, 2005.
 
For many Sudanese, particularly in the south, Garang inspired hope in a democratic, secure and united Sudan.

Garang fought for this goal for many years and believed the CPA to be a launchpad for his vision. But it seems that all of those noble notions were buried with him.
 
Massive civilian toll

It is estimated that up to three million south Sudanese had been killed and displaced since the conflict began in May 1983.

The basis of their struggle had been their desire to end decades of discrimination and injustice inflicted upon them by the Northern-dominated government.

Their sense of disenfranchisement was further compounded by a sense of alienation in September 1983 when Ja'afar Nemeiri, the former leader of Sudan, introduced his controversial Islamic penal code into the Sudanese judicial system. That was the last straw for the predominantly animist and Christian South.
 
Suddenly the SPLM and its military wing the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) – had been transformed from a regional rebellion comprised of one army platoon to a liberation movement that managed to win the respect and support of many members of the international community.
 
Lingering distrust

Africa's hidden treasure trove

Sudan is considered to have vast  natural resources.

In addition to oil reserves, largely untapped in the southern third of the country, the country has significant uranium, copper, diamond, gold, iron ore, mica and silver mines dotting the landscape.

 

Less than 200,000 square km of the country has been cultivated but agricultural estimates indicate that Sudan can successfully become the wheat basket of Africa if it is able to develop the existing 1.2 million square km of cultivable land.

 

It is also in a geo-strategic are of Africa, bordering Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central Republic of Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Eritrea.

So is all of that bitter history a relic of the past? The answer is an emphatic no. History still haunts the peace partners to this day. The walls of distrust are too thick to be demolished by the mere exchange of smiles and pleasantries.

The South is in dire need of vital infrastructure and goods, from roads and industry to antibiotics and pencils. I toured parts of the South in 2006 and was shocked to see the total lack of development despite the rich potential of the land.

Poverty, illiteracy, and disease are everywhere while the inexperienced former fighters are desperately trying to grapple with the challenges facing them in affairs of governance.
 
The situation in Khartoum is not much better for the south Sudanese. The bureaucrats of the National Congress Party, so used to being at the helm of power, have been loathe to relinquish their seats of power without a fight.

Some of them had to be dragged to the negotiating table and agreed to reach a deal only after a lot of coaxing and pressure from the international community.

However, they then tried to delay the implementation of the CPA every step of the way and sought to block the appointment of SPLM members in the government.

Such crises increased distrust, created problems and push SPLM ministers to withdraw from the national unity government for more than  two months.

Eventually, the National Congress caved in to power-sharing demands and the SPLM ordered its ministers to resume their duties within the government.
 
Oil of contention

The CPA has also deliberately prolonged the transitional period in order to build trust between North and South. The goal was to convince south Sudanese that they would be better off in a united Sudan. Unfortunately, unity seems like an impossible goal right now after three years of this strange power and wealth-sharing formula. 

Sudan's oil wealth is considered to be a serious bone of contention between the two regions and is threatening to plunge the country again into a bitter conflict.

The oil-rich region of Abeyei is located on the demarcation line between North and South where countries such as China, have been actively producing and exporting the oil out since 2001.

The arbitration commission that has been assigned to determine the exact borders between the North and the South has been inconclusive on the status of Abeyei, thus angering both the government and the SPLM.

The Khartoum government knows that it would choke economically without the oil produced in Abeyei, while the SPLM is trying to gain control of the area to honour promises of oil concessions made to many Western companies.

Unfortunately, one of the ugly legacies of post-colonial African rebel movements is that they receive generous donations from multi-national corporations in exchange for future concessions to prospect oil and other natural resources.

That is precisely why neither the government nor the SPLM is giving any quarters when it comes to the status of Abeyei.  
 
Analysts also believe that many of the recent clashes between the SPLM and the government are due to the lack of experience and brash style of Garang's successor, Salva Kiir Mayardit.

As the military commander of the SPLA, Kiir - a man of few words and even less patience -   suddenly found himself catapulted to this position of power; a position he was ill-prepared to undertake.
 
His failure to compromise was matched by an equally reticent government; many problems between the new partners came as a result of deeply-rooted hatred that both sides have for each other.
 
Secession?

SPLM members have never been able to shake off the belief they are "oppressed southerners" while their northern counterparts feel as if they were being robbed of all achievements of the National Salvation Revolution – the name they call the coup that brought the Islamists to power in June 1989.
 
The CPA, which was designed to bring about peace and prosperity to the Sudanese people after 22 years of war, has so far very little to show for itself.

The south Sudanese are supposed to vote in a referendum in 2009 to choose between a national unity or secession.

But there are concerns that the people of south Sudan are highly unlikely to opt for unity. The reasons are many and painful, but what stands out as the single greatest justification for separation is that save for a few SPLM supporters, the lives of most southerners has not improved at all.
 
What adds fuel to the fire is the "whole country is suffering"  rationale parroted by northern hardliners. Even if true, it could never compare with the horrors southern Sudan has had to endure since 1983.
 
It is time for a reality check for all of Sudan. Otherwise, the partition of the country is a very likely prospect.
 
The writer is an Al Jazeera political analyst .

 

Source: Al Jazeera

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  • Bravo to Mr. Salva Kiir for Rejecting the US Proposal By James Okuk Solomon
  • Female Circumcision Negligence and Abuse By Dr. Amal Ahmed Elbasheir.
  • U.S Should Upgrade the SPLA if it is willing to Help Southern Sudan *By James Okuk Solomon
  • Where Sudan Is Booming By Alexis Okeowo
  • When Will Darfur Mediators Learn? By Suliman A. Giddo*
  • Mob Emotions Is Anti-Democratic Transformation By James Okuk Solomon
  • Check with Improper Balance: SPLM Risky Politics of Partnership By James Okuk Solomon
  • Another way to break Abie deadlock by Dr. S.M.Eldebailo
  • The SPLM & Protecting the CPA: Guarding Against the Cynical Obstructionism of NCP Parek Maduot
  • Do Ministers belong to the Party or to the Government? *By James Okuk
  • Habib Bank v Central Bank of Sudan Ismat Abdel Gadir - LL.B
  • DRIVING FAST TO EXPLODE IN THE ABYSS! By Comarde Edward Lino
  • Shilluk Communities vs Shilluk International Congress (SIC) By: Kimo Ajing Aba
  • FASTING RAMADAN IN A MONASTERY: Mohammad Ali Salih
  • It is Darfur Again and the Misery Goes On By E. Ablorh-Odjidja
  • SLM request to delay Libya talks by Tag Elkhazin,
  • THE HONOURABLE WISE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD/Ali Mahmoud Hassanein
  • Will the united Sudan remain attractive for all under the NCP regime?! By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • The Value of Peace in Sudan: From Ki-Moon to International Wisemen By James Okuk Solomon
  • South Sudan Egyptians relations / John Lawrence Morbe Joseph
  • Will the Failed Abuja Diplomacy Be Repeated in Libya? By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Why a reality check is needed on Darfur by Anne Bartlett
  • United, Cairo's poor and poorer get heard
  • A Message from Ajik (Ajang) Union in North American To: Commander and Comrade Daniel Kodi by Fadul H.Haimad
  • What Happened To Gen. Kiir First Vice Presidency Position? / by Isaiah Abraham
  • Eritrea in the Sudan's president's office, By: Mohamed Osman Ibrahim
  • UN Ban Ki-Moon and his Drought Thesis of Darfur Conflict By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom, Ph.D.
  • UN Secretary General: Mission Impossible By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Old Habits Die Hard: The National Congress Party is Back to Its Outmoded Tactics—By: Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Greatest Marginalization of All Time/Isam Siddig
  • Darfur: A Little Less Talk, A Little More Action by Anne Bartlett
  • Muslims eye America by MOHAMMAD ALI SALIH
  • General Elections in Sudan by the Year 2009: A Fact or a Fiction?/By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Alsalkeen Charitable Organization General Secretary. /By Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Cons and Cues About The Sudanese Forthcoming General Election/Isaiah Abraham
  • Animal’s rights are also rights/Isaiah Abraham
  • SPLM Official Counters the Recent Remarks of the NCP Official over Abyie and Darfour Translated by MAJOK NIKODEMO AROU
  • The Arab Congregation and the Ideology of Genocide in Darfur, Sudan By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom, Ph.D.
  • Catholics Led to Hell/Written by Daniel Deng Monyde,
  • Keep away from Darfour, Mustafa Osman Ismail, warns the SPLM Translated by Majok Nikodemo Arou
  • Abyei Protocol. by Mayen. D. Ater
  • Darfur Actors and the absence of Road Maps By Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman
  • Judiciary Reshuffle Ineptly Calculated by Daniel Deng Monyde
  • Stop the Genocide and give the security then peace will come/Hamed Mohamedain Omer
  • THE AMERICANS AND ME (2): ISLAM Mohammad Ali Salih, Washington, “Asharq Alawsat
  • Unwanted in Israel By Sherine Tadros at the Egyptian-Israeli border
  • ISSUES that Rose From the Sudanese Ambassador Press Conference By Jwothab Amum Ajak
  • Al Bashir Slams on Campaigners against Sudan, Reviews Political Developments By: Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Was Dr. John Garang Assassinated?/Daniel Deng Monyde,
  • What had happened in Darfur?/Mahmoud E. Yousif
  • Abie conflict The Inferno of Nivasha or the Paradise of Peace by Dr. S.M.Eldebailo
  • TEXT- Conclusions of AU-UN, Sudan on the Hybrid Operations
  • Alfashir is nearer than Kampala: JEM/NRF Commends New SPLM Stance on Darfur/By: Abdullahi Osman El-Tom
  • COMSARY by SALMAN OMER MAHMOUD
  • Sudan: The Politics of Naming - Genocide, Civil War, Insurgency/Prof. Mahmood Mamdani
  • US to Sanction Dr. Khalil Ibrahim! A Statement/Gammali Hasan Galal Eldin
  • Can Darfur Survive the CPA?/Abdullahi El-Tom and Mahmoud Abbaker Suleiman
  • GOD OR AMERICA: WHO IS FIRST? 8 DIFFERENT OPINIONS/Mohammad Ali Salih, Washington, “Asharq Alawsat”
  • It would be Unwise to think that a United Sudan Properly Functions within the Main Frameworks of the Phenomenon of Eastern African Development./Urban T. Kir
  • Darfur Crisis: Mediation Failure (2)/Ahmed M. Mohamedain
  • Government of Sudan and Darfur crisis/Musa Yakub Daoud
  • President Bush "Hurts" for Darfur Darfur Is Safer than US Urban Cities/Ali Baghdadi
  • Our Vision on the prospect of peace to end the Darfur tragedy/By Dr. M.A.Suleiman
  • Lies, Damned Lies and the Darfur Crisis by Anne Bartlett is a Director of the Darfur Centre for Human Rights and Development
  • International Media Ignore Sudanese Voices /AfricaFocus (Washington, DC)
  • Sudanese cyber rally forces website to remove controversial ad by Wasil Ali
  • why war in abyaii by bakhit mohd humaidan
  • Al Salikeen Earmarks 1.2 Billion Pounds for Service Schemes by Al Sammani Awadallah
  • A CALL TO ALL THE PEOPLE OF SOUTH SUDAN/By James Ogilo Agor Agokwech-Rochester, MN USA
  • Will the Quartet Summit Contradict with the UN, AU Role in Darfur By: Al Sammani Awadallah
  • Sudan Vision Carries Out a Survey on Pros and Cons of Humanitarian Aid in Sudan By: Al-Sammani Awadallah
  • Al Khatim Adlan’s legacy of wisdom and vision/ahmed elzobier
  • WHEN THEY BEG FOR UNITY by Mack Awer Riak
  • The Genocide Glitterati by Anne Bartlett
  • Darfur-Darfur Dialogue Will Not be Held Hostage by Hostile Armed Factions", Says Dr. Omar Adam
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains/by Nuba Mountains Democratic Forum/Nour Tawir
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains by Nuba_Mountains Democratic Forum by Samie A Djudo
  • RIFT KAKUMA HITS BY VALLEY FEVER. By;Mabior Mayom Mayom
  • How Dr. Garang wanted Abyei to be? (1) /By Akol Miyen Kuol
  • A brighter future for the Nuba Mountains by Nuba Mountains Democratic Forum
  • The Doomsday Cult/Ahmed Sam, human rights activist.
  • China must emulate AU wisdom in Sudan by Simon Roughneen for ISN
  • An article introducing our country Sudan by Maha esmeal ahmed esmeal
  • It is a time for all Peace forces to take action By : Matur Aciek
  • Kiir stood to his pledge of no reverse gear/ BY MAJOK NIKODEMO AROU
  • IT IS TIME FOR THE SPLA TO ESTABLISH ITS OWN AIR FORCE/Maker Costa
  • Unwitting Party to Genocide By Stephen Rademaker
  • SPLA, STANDS STRONG AND PROUD!/By Hakim Makuer Gol
  • January 9th- a Day of Peace and Full Independence/By Dr. Mawien Akot
  • Muslim cadet clear on identity/YVETTE CABRERA
  • 2008 General Elections: What Are The Scenarios Awaiting Us?/Maker Costa-Syracuse New York
  • ’s NCP is planning to rig elections at census level/By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Criticism to the Global War Against International Terrorism, (G-WAIT) by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Swindles of Modern Liberal Democracy by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • Peaceful Conflict Resolution & the War on Terror The cases of Sudan and Iraq by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Jinjaweed Leader By : kuku kadia
  • UA-GSC Sudan Resolution Passes/By Marie Y. Thibault
  • All About Darfur: Is Sudan in a culture of war? By Virginie Wembey
  • AU Recommends Six Month Extension for its Mission By: Al Sammani Awadallah / IOL
  • No South/North border and ABC: CPA is dead.By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Darfur destruction is Sudan’s al-Bashir’s Shame/By Sabrino Majok Majok*
  • Relationship Between Economic Mismanagement & Social Instability by Eng. Tarig M.M.K. Anter
  • Fake Modern Religions Are Fighting Faith by Tarig M. M. K. Anter
  • The Ideological Structure of The Conservative Professional Nationalist Party & System by Eng. Tarig M.M.K. Anter,
  • 'Lost Boys of Sudan' By: Kristin Boyd , Staff Writer
  • Sudan's al-Bashir and Palace are imperfect Match By Sabrino Majok Majok
  • Frank Wolf: Divest from Sudan By U.S. Rep. Frank Wolf (R-10)
  • Sudanese Native Relates Horrors of His Childhood/By Konstantin Shishkin
  • General Congress of JEM Asserts Creation of a political Party/Professor Mahmoud Abakar Sulaiman
  • Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and the Litany of AU Deceit in Darfur/Dr. Abdullahi Osman El-Tom
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  • Reign of Corruption and political stagnation By Andrew Bak
  • Current American Planning Strategies vs. Planning Strategies of the 50s’/By: Adil Bala (PhD)*
  • Free Will, JEM Peace Wing Sign Political and Military Protocol By Al-Sammani Awadallah
  • Only Favourable Humanitarian and Security Conditions are Needed in Darfur By: Al Sammani Awadalla
  • A call to Abolish Sha’ria Law in South Sudan: GOSS must take a Lead
  • Race and colour consciousness art or is it ... Religions? Hatim Elmadani
  • Who are Landless People in Sudan? Mack Awer -Cairo
  • Darfur: Diplomacy and its Discontents by Anne Bartlett
  • Why Egypt won't press Sudan: the Nile By Dan Murphy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
  • Pathological Delusions by Ahmed Elzobier
  • NIF is determined to kill CPA By Sabrino Majok Majok
  • Darfur - Solution Must Come From Africans By Mohammed Eisa Ismail
  • The responsibility to protect Darfur By William G. O'Neill
  • Sudanese go tech savvy By Cheryl Lecesse
  • Sorrow in Sudan By Vivian Ho