SPLM’s Kiir will NOT be the next President of Sudan

By Tut Gatwech, South Sudan

3 rd August 2008 –   I'd want to go straight as to why I believe that the current Chairman of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the Party’s nominee for the top position in the country, General Salva Kiir Mayardit will NOT be the next President .

Firstly, and to be honest, General Kiir has never mentally prepared himself to lead a political organization or government during the liberation struggle since 1983.   As a long time deputy to the late Dr. John Garang de Mabior, Kiir was kept in military barracks and in total darkness of what was going on politically in the Movement. He was a very good loyalist to the late trusting him to deal with all political decisions while he was concentrating on military issues. He could not bother to digest by himself whatever political decisions were made in the Movement .

The only reaction and even threat posed by Kiir was when his very own door was knocked mistakenly by late Dr. Garang when he attempted to replace him (Kiir) with Mr. Nhial Deng Nhial towards the end of 2004. Otherwise Kiir was ready to support the status quo in the Movement! He could not imagine how he would deal with the situation if his trusted boss was not there any more. The death of late Dr. Garang caught Kiir by surprise and unprepared !

" If they (South) could not trust Salva Kiir when he is the President of the Government of Southern Sudan, how would they trust him if he becomes the President of the Republic of Sudan ? "  

Kiir’s life time background while serving in the Sudan Armed Forces

 ( SAF) before the formation of the SPLM/A has been that of intelligent officer in the army. He was doing this before he rebelled and continued to do it as Security Chief during the liberation struggle. In addition to his natural humbleness, the job has affected how Kiir reacts to situations politically or militarily. He sees things at a suspicious angle and reluctant to articulate .

Whatever communications or internal dialogues he has with him on political and administrative issues, he judges them like intelligent reports from security personnel and treats them as such. The man is politically inexperienced, less articulate with a secretive and suspicious personality .

Secondly, Kiir is not ready to challenge President Omer Hassen el Beshir in the Khartoum Palace. He is not politically ambitious like his predecessor late Dr. John Garang de Mabior. He is unable to present himself to the so-called marginalized people of the Sudan, let alone the Sudanese masses in general during the last three years of his being the First Vice President and Chairman of the SPLM. He even shies away from championing national issues in Khartoum and prefers to stay in his other junior office in the South, leaving the very man he wants to challenge now to continue with unleveled playing ground .

With his lack of political ambition coupled with his suspicious and less articulate nature, I doubt that he will carry out a vigorous campaign throughout the whole country within the next coming remaining months before the elections. And even if he campaigns, I doubt that the so-called marginalized people of the Sudan are ready to vote for him. They know that the man is incompetent and unable to run his semi-autonomous government in the South that would have been a shining example to the whole Sudan .

If the SPLM Political Bureau members were serious in their nomination, they would have been better off nominating either Mr. Pagan Amum or Mr. Malik Agaar (sometimes referred to as the ‘communist boys’) to do what Salva Kiir Mayardit would not be competent enough to do. I exclude Dr. Riek Machar Teny and Hon. James Wani Igga because they are branded as separatists who further the other vision of creating an independent sovereign nation in the South .

SPLM should also understand that there are other organized political parties who also claim to represent the so-called marginalized people and further their cause to change Sudan for the better if they win the coming elections .

And unfortunately, SPLM-led government in the South has proven to be corrupt and unable to deliver the issues they were fighting for in the bush war. This leaves many including its former allies and supporters to ask whether the SPLM could change the whole Sudan for the better when it fails to change Southern Sudan. The marginalized people, particularly in the North, may opt to vote for other political parties in the North that also claim to work for change in the Sudan in the interest of the marginalized people .

In the South, the supposedly stronghold, the majority of the people of Southern Sudan do not any longer trust the SPLM to deliver for them. They see it as corrupt, tribally based and destroyer of their political aspirations using its so-called New Sudan Vision project. If they could not trust Salva Kiir when he is the President of the Government of Southern Sudan, how would they trust him if he becomes the President of the Republic of Sudan? If he could not also contribute to the change of the Sudan through his position as the President in the South, how would he be expected to do his job if he becomes President of Sudan ?

The people of Southern Sudan may decide not to vote for him for the post of the President in Khartoum as Kiir may not use his national power to help facilitate the furthering of 2011 vote for separation. He may turn out to be the killer of the referendum in 2011. It would therefore be the right choice of the people of Southern Sudan not to give him that choice but to frustrate him so that he favors separation .

The other obstacle to Kiir’s ascending to the post of President is the question of whether the loser would have the guts to handover power to the winner, or even acknowledge defeat! To me, I don’t think President Omer el Beshir has gotten that courage yet to disarm himself of his power, and especially in the wake of the ICC’s Ocampo’s indictments and pending a warrant of arrest. Even if Kiir would miraculously win 95% of the total votes counted, he would be told that he got only 5% in the face of international community observers .

The author is a young ordinary citizen living in Sudan and can be reached at: tutgatwech_born_in_1980@yahoo.com

southsudandaily@yahoo.com