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SUDAN: Elections in a volatile climate
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Feb 19, 2010 - 7:34:03 AM

Photo: Peter Martell/IRIN

Children take part in efforts to promote voter registration: Votes will be cast for both the president of the republic and for the semi-autonomous south (file photo)

JUBA, 19 February 2010 (IRIN) - Officials are appealing for calm during the campaign period ahead of upcoming historic elections in April as insecurity remains a major concern in Southern Sudan.

Electoral campaigning in the highly charged contest opened on 13 February, two months before three days of polling from 11 April, with the results due a week later.

Officials have called on politicians not to raise ethnic or political tensions in a region already reeling from violent clashes.

�During this period of campaigning, let this period be peaceful - let them not use inciting words that will lead to public disorder,� said Jersa Kide Barsaba, a member of the South Sudan High Election Committee.

�Let them not hate each other as parties, but let them come as one people who are Southern Sudanese, so that these elections will end up as peaceful,� she added.

The elections are a key part of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended Sudan�s 22-year long civil war between north and south, in which an estimated two million people died.

But tensions remain high in the south, with several inter-ethnic clashes between rival groups. More than 2,500 people were killed and almost 400,000 displaced in 2009. The violence affected seven of the region�s 10 states, according to the Office of the Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Southern Sudan.

�Projections for 2010 indicate that the situation is likely to worsen,� the office said in an overview of humanitarian issues, citing lack of resources and capacity among security forces for resolving conflicts.

In the run-up to a January 2011 referendum in which southerners will decide between secession or unity, �there is a real, but hopefully avoidable, possibility that the humanitarian crisis will engulf Southern Sudan, jeopardizing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement�, according to the overview.

Southern Sudan: a crisis in numbers
2,500:	Inter-ethnic clash fatalities in 2009
400,000:	People displaced by these clashes
7:	States, out of 10, where clashes occurred
2.7m:	Small arms in circulation
4.3m:	People who will need food aid some time in 2010
1.5m:	People facing severe food insecurity (up from 1m)
85%:	Proportion of health services provided by NGOs
85%:	Rate of illiteracy
57.9:	Life expectancy at birth
14.8%:	Global acute malnutrition rate
2,054:	Maternal mortality rate
48%:	Population lacking clean water
15.8%:	Primary school enrolment
Sources: Office of UN resident/humanitarian coordinator, Small Arms Survey, UNDP

Hunger is also a major problem: the UN World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the number of people in the south needing food aid has more than quadrupled, from just less than a million in 2009 to 4.3 million this year, because of conflict and drought.

Security threats

Votes will be cast for both the president of the republic and for the semi-autonomous south, as well as for national, southern and state legislative assemblies.

�Election security is a major issue,� the US Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration told reporters in Juba on 18 February. �The efforts we are taking right now are to reduce the potential for violence.�

Despite recent steps forward on several key issues, tensions remain between the former civil war enemies: the south�s ruling Sudan Peoples� Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the northern National Congress Party (NCP).

�The single most important factor influencing the success or failure of the Sudanese peace process is the nature of the relationship between SPLM and NCP,� UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned in a 19 January report.

�The current atmosphere of pervasive mistrust, in which any gain by one party is viewed as a loss by the other, dramatically undermines that political will, effectively disrupts international efforts to assist, and sets the stage for renewed conflict,� it added.

But many fear pressures within the south too: while the top leadership of the SPLM has vowed not to restrict the campaigns of opposition parties, distrust remains high among lower level officials and the armed forces.

A splinter faction known as SPLM Democratic Change (SPLM-DC) is seen by many in the south as a proxy force of former enemies in Khartoum � an accusation strongly rejected by the SPLM-DC itself.

Meanwhile several senior SPLM leaders have broken party ranks to contest seats as independents against the official candidates - including for influential state governor positions � raising concerns it could create local flashpoints for violence.

�We do not want violence, I can assure you that,� said Dau Aturjong, a general in the Southern army and SPLM stalwart, but who is running as an independent for the governorship of Northern Bahr el Ghazal state.

�But I cannot talk on behalf of others: if people realize they are weak and are going to be defeated, they may think of making violence.�

Photo: Peter Martell/IRIN

Soldiers on patrol in Juba: Officials have called on politicians not to raise ethnic or political tensions ahead of the elections (file photo)

Complex poll

�These elections are so complex many do not understand - we are trying hard to explain to people but still they find it difficult,� Barsaba added. �Even some of the candidates themselves don�t understand it.�

Instead, many in the south appear more concerned with the independence referendum slated for January 2011.

However, successful elections are a vital stepping stone towards that vote, officials have warned.

�Credible elections are crucial for a smooth post-election transition to the referendum,� Ban�s report added.

�A credible process will also reduce the possibility of election-related violence and will help to legitimize bodies that will oversee the referendum processes.�

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