Articles and Analysies
CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PRE AND POST ELECTIONS PERIOD IN THE SUDAN By: David De Dau
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Nov 29, 2008 - 4:40:16 PM

CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PRE AND POST ELECTIONS PERIOD IN THE SUDAN

By: David De Dau

Email: [email protected]

Introduction and background

David De Dau

The root causes of the Sudan�s problems have always centers around resources allocation, power sharing, religious bias and lack of equal and fair treatment for all the citizens of the Sudan.

The Sudan�s violent conflicts which have existed for more than five decades could be best traced to the time of the non-African intervention into the Sudan in early 1400s.   These non-Africans came as petty traders by which they took the name jallaba meaning petty traders of salts and other small commodities which were then not available to the African indigenous Sudanese.

The petty traders came into Sudan ( Sudan means the land of the black) one by one and they then started owning lands. They intermarried with the local indigenous Africans of who mostly were from the Nubia and Mer�� kingdoms.

 During the years since the immigration of these salt traders commonly called in the contemporary history as Arabs, wars and disasters have never ceased.

The famous historical 1947 Juba conference was simply an extension of the preceding wars between the Arabs and the indigenous Africans mostly southern Sudanese who had resisted conversion into Islam and Arab culture by force.

Studying critically as to why southern Sudanese paramount chiefs requested to be part of the east African community at the Juba conference, the southern Sudanese felt those historical injustices that were imposed on them by the then British government and the Egyptians in supporting the Arab north to butcher southerners and forced them into Islam was not going to end easily even if they live in one country.

The South Sudan Liberation Movement (SSLM) commonly called Anyanya one was an extension of the violation of the rights of the people of southern Sudan as expressed at the Juba conference.

The failure of the Addis Ababa Agreement which brought to an end a seventeen years war resulted into a more than two decades civil wars in the Sudan between the majority southern Sudanese dominant Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement and Army (SPLM/A) under colonel John Garang and the oppressive regime led by the Khartoum preceding governments which has existed for more than a century.

 The Comprehensive Peace Agreement

The negotiation and the signature of the comprehensive peace Agreement (CPA) came at a time when both parties had reach amok! It is important to note that both parties were tired of fighting each other and yet the two had no trust of each other. The CPA is to help the Sudanese cultivate the virtue of trust amongst them.

The implementation of the CPA proved an uphill task for the people of Sudan and particularly to the people of southern Sudan. The wealth sharing protocol became a nightmare to implement it since there is no transparency in the allocation of resources which is one of the core causes of the conflict in the Sudan. The power sharing protocol also proved difficult and the SPLM counter part National Congress Party decided to take both the ministry of energy and mining as well as the ministry of finance.

The security arrangement has not been fully implemented! The redeployment of forces from both sides has been very slow. The Sudan armed forces (SAF) have not completely withdrawn from southern Sudan and especially from Western Bahr el Ghazel, Northern Bahr el Ghazel, Unity and Upper Nile states. SAF is still arming their former soldiers in Juba and other areas in the South preparing them for possibly another civil war!

The CPA has had three bench marks in its implementation. The three are the census which was conducted last April of 2008, the elections of which we are within the elections periods and the final bench mark is the referendum for the people of southern Sudan to determine their future by either voting for an independent South Sudan or confirm the unity of the Sudan, that is if southern Sudanese are fully convinced that the Arab north that fought bitter wars with them are trust worthy people to live with.

But the questions will be: have the Arabs of Sudan changed their attitudes towards indigenous African Sudanese? Do they see Southerners as people whom they can live in the same country without religious prejudices? Have the Arabs accept that fact that all people are equal before the law? Will they abandon sharia law and implement circular law? Will Khartoum be free from being sharia law infested city? How shall we live in a country where people have divided interest and way of life? Will the trust that the Arabs will not backslide the South to square zero be there? And finally, under such conditions will southern Sudanese confirm unity of the Sudan where they will be slaves instead of being free citizens? The decision of a united Sudan is an absolute choice of an individual! Referendum is a choice between freedom and slavery! A choice between liberty and forever captivity!

Elections in the Sudan

Having read about the biter history of the Sudan between northerners and southerners and between Islam and other religious groups, it is worth noticing that people of southern Sudan should look at the forth coming elections as a unifying factor rather than a divisive tool.

These forthcoming coming elections will be a test for southerners to see whether they could accept each other or not. It will test the degree of tribalism and corruption in the South.

You may not like this analysis but this is the reality of the matter and the truth about the CPA, the elections and possibly the referendum. Let�s look at how these elections will change the dimensional facets of the South! How it will affect the South and why southerners should look at the common good of all.

I will focus on the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) since it is the dominant party in southern Sudan. The roles of the other political parties are very important in these elections. In my analysis, whether we like it or not some leaders whom southerners might have never expected to lead them will lead them this time. Either by default or by fault, it must be accepted that Dr. Riek Machar may be the president of the government of southern Sudan and this automatically enthroned him the commander in chief of the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) according to the interim constitution of the government of southern Sudan, 2005. James Wani Igga definitely becomes the vice president of the government of southern Sudan. The speaker of the southern Sudan Legislative Assembly will depend on the choice of the legitimate members of the Assembly of southern Sudan visa vise to the elections results.

In the hierarchy of the SPLM, General Kiir Mayarit is the chairman of the SPLM. Dr. Riek Machar is the first vice Chairman; the second vice chairman is James Wani Igga and then followed by the third vice chairman, Mr. Malik Agar of Southern Blue Nile.

Since we are concentrating on the effect of the election on southern Sudan, we shall circle between Salva Kiir, Riek Machar and Wani Igga!

Elections for the position of the President of the Republic of Sudan

According to the Sudan National election Act, 2008, each and every political party shall nominate a candidate for this position. Please note there shall be no political party to nominate one candidate for two positions. In other words, SPLM like any other political party shall not nominate let�s say Kiir to vie for the seat of the president of the republic and the position of the president of the government of southern Sudan. Kiir will have to vie for one seat and not both!

If Kiir goes to vie for the National seat of the republic of Sudan, then he shall surrender to someone else to vie for the seat of the president of the government of southern Sudan.

Let�s say if Kiir wins the top seat of the republic then his first vice president will come from the North and the second vice president will come from the South. That is, the second vice president of the republic will be the president of the government of southern Sudan. Following the SPLM hierarchy, Dr. Machar becomes the president of the government of southern Sudan and the second vice president of the republic of Sudan.

If Kiir wins the elections, the Sudan shall be in union for a period of three years before the referendum is conducted. If the referendum takes place and the people of southern Sudan vote for the unity of the Sudan, then president Kiir will remain the president of the republic of Sudan and if southerners decide otherwise, the government of National Unity of which Kiir is the president would be amicably dissolved and Kiir still goes home since the seat in the South is occupied by a president who was people�s elected.

If the opposite occurs that Kiir doesn�t make it for the National seat, while the seat of the president of the government of southern Sudan is occupied by Machar, then Kiir goes home straight a way because he will have no seat in the South as a president but may become either the leader of the opposition parties in the North or become a backbencher in the National Assembly. In this case, the elected president of the republic who comes from the north will appoint Dr. Riek Machar as the first vice president of the republic and the president of the government of southern Sudan. The second vice president will automatically come from the North!

If to avoid the embarrassment of Kiir losing elections at the National level and to keep him for the president of the government of southern Sudan, whoever the SPLM will nominate for the top seat elections must by legal procedures become the chairman or chairperson of the SPLM meaning Kiir will have to first hand over the chairmanship of the party to whoever is nominated in order to vie for that seat with a full mandate of the SPLM as the chair, the commander in chief of SPLA and president of GOSS. Once these legal procedures are met, then the new SPLM chair goes to vie for the top seat of the republic and then Kiir remains the second candidate for the position for the president of the government of southern Sudan. In this case, Kiir would have been saved from the possible double lose of both elections at the National and regional level of southern Sudan.

Elections for the position of the president of the government of southern Sudan

If to follow the SPLM hierarchy, if Kiir goes for the top seat, then Machar automatically become the second nominee of the SPLM for the post of the president of the government of southern Sudan. Either again by default or by fault because of the popularity of the SPLM in southern Sudan, Dr. Machar automatically becomes the president of the government of southern Sudan.

As a matter of fact in the hierarchy, Machar shall appoint James Wani Igga as the vice president of the government of southern Sudan. The rest of the positions in the government of southern Sudan and the state government will be determined with the elections results.

Conclusion and recommendations

This analysis is not telling the people of southern Sudan as to who would win or lose the elections but to show the possibilities of these forthcoming elections in 2009. It�s up to the people of southern Sudan to decide either to follow leaders based on their tribal affiliations or search for peace despite whoever comes to power!

The elections must be faced by southerners after they have made a clear choice of what exactly they need out the long devastating struggle for peace and freedom for all. The price of freedom is always paid with human blood and heads but the maintenance of peace is eternal vigilance.