البنك الدولي : إقتصاد دولة السودان الجنوبي علي حافة الإنهيار

EXCLUSIVE: South Sudan economy on the verge of collapse, World Bank warns

May 6, 2012 (WASHINGTON) – The newly independent state of South Sudan is quickly headed towards an economic cliff in light of its decision to shut down oil production which went into effect earlier this year, says a confidential report by the World bank.


South Sudan’s Minister of Finance and Economic Planning Kosti Manibe Ngai (left) as he signs the treaty to become World Bank/IMF’s newest member (AFP)
South Sudan took with it 75% of the oil reserves that existed when it was united with the north. But the landlocked nation could only export its oil through the pipelines that run through Sudan’s territories and end at the Red Sea port city.

Following a bitter row over how much Juba should pay Khartoum for the service, South Sudan made a unilateral decision to suspend oil production in response to Sudan’s seizure of a portion of the exported oil to make up for what it says are unpaid transit fees.

South Sudanese officials insisted that even though oil exports constitutes 98% of Juba’s revenue, they are capable of surviving until an alternative pipeline is built. They also stress that just as much as the people of South Sudan were able to live through a long and devastating civil war with the north they could manage few years of economic hardships.

But a briefing by a senior World Bank official on March 1st obtained by Sudan Tribune paints a very bleak picture of what awaits South Sudan’s economy in the months ahead.

"[T]he World Bank has never seen a satiation as dramatic as the one faced by South Sudan," the World Bank’s Director of Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction Programs for Africa Marcelo Giugale is quoted as telling representatives of the major donor groups including the United States, United Kingdom, European Union (EU), Norway and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) among others.

The same presentation was given to the top officials in South Sudan on February 29, 2012.

Giugale told the donors that neither South Sudan president Salva Kiir nor senior member of his cabinet "were aware of the economic implications of the [oil] shutdown".

According to the transcript, the World Bank official "candidly said that the decision was shocking and that officials present had not internalized nor understood the consequences of the decision".

South Sudan is a unique and unprecedented situation globally, Giugale said because "countries in crisis usually face a collapse in growth rather than of GDP".

As a result of "sharp" drop in influx of hard currency and once citizens in South Sudan realize that value of their local currency is slipping "there will be a run for the dollars and families with dollars will almost certainly shift them outside the country".

Giugale pointed out that because most South Sudanese are not fully financial literate the run on the point has not yet happened.

"Once it starts, the currency will almost certainly collapse," Giugale says.

The World Bank official went on to analyze the situation of South Sudan’s foreign reserves and it is estimated that even with austerity measures adopted by the government in Juba, depletion of reserves can occur by next July "at which point state collapse becomes a real possibility".

If South Sudan takes the drastic measure of cutting monthly spending by 77%, the reserves can only last until December 2013.

Social impact of the oil shutdown is no less daunting as Giugale points out. The percentage of population in living in poverty will jump from 51% in 2012 to 83% in 2013. In gross numbers 3.6 million more people will fall below the poverty line.

Under-five child mortality will double from 10% live births in 2012 to 20% in 2013 and school enrollment will drop from 50% to 20% over the same time period.

Giugale also dismissed arguments made by South Sudanese officials that a large percentage of the population will be immune from the impact because it is not part of the cash economy.

"Even the poorest households interact with the cash economy during the three-five month hunger gap through some form of trade, usually livestock. The terms of trade for livestock (goats and cattle) will depreciate sharply against imported staple food commodities pushing millions of households out of the market and deepening food insecurity. This is likely to occur at the height of the planting and harvest season, with profound implications for the next two-three productive cycles" Giugale says.

NO VIABLE ALTERNATIVE

The options before South Sudan are very limited and include implementation of severe austerity measures and establishing social safety net programs.

Even if Juba were to triple non-oil revenue as they project its impact will be "negligible" the World Bank official says.

Giugale stated that the World Bank analysis might help speed up reforms within South Sudan civil service that were otherwise not possible. But he cautioned that an economic collapse "could result in social and political fragmentation, unrest and instability".

The G-6 donors group reacted to the World Bank finding by issuing a warning to South Sudan government that they are not prepared to fill the fiscal gap and as the situation continues they will not support the programs asked for by Juba.

"We anticipate a reorientation of our programs to protect the vulnerable, focused on life saving interventions. We cannot additionally implement the aid strategies that have been agreed upon," the donors said.

South Sudan is urged by the donors to resolve the current standoff with Khartoum over the oil exports in order to build its institutions and capacity.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Wednesday ordered north and south Sudan to return to negotiations within two weeks and resolve several issues including oil within four months.

Any side that fails to comply or cooperate with mediation could face sanctions, according to the UNSC resolution.

(ST)

Quote: البنك الدولي : إقتصاد دولة السودان الجنوبي علي حافة الإنهيار

أعجب لبنك دولي لا يميز بين حافة و قاع!

Quote: May 6, 2012 (WASHINGTON) – The newly independent state of South Sudan is quickly headed towards an economic cliff in light of its decision to shut down oil production which went into effect earlier this year, says a confidential report by the World bank.

واشنطون 6مايو 2012
دولة جنوب السودان حديثة الإستقلال تتجه سريعاً نحو هاوية إقتصادية في ضوء قرارها بإيقاف إنتاج البترول في وقت سابق من هذا العام، كما جاء في تقرير سري للبنك الدولي.

Quote: May 6, 2012 (WASHINGTON) – The newly independent state of South Sudan is quickly headed towards an economic cliff in light of its decision to shut down oil production which went into effect earlier this year, says a confidential report by the World bank.

واشنطون 6مايو 2012
دولة جنوب السودان حديثة الإستقلال تتجه سريعاً نحو هاوية إقتصادية في ضوء قرارها بإيقاف إنتاج البترول في وقت سابق من هذا العام، كما جاء في تقرير سري للبنك الدولي.

مكرر

Quote: Following a bitter row over how much Juba should pay Khartoum for the service, South Sudan made a unilateral decision to suspend oil production in response to Sudan’s seizure of a portion of the exported oil to make up for what it says are unpaid transit fees. South Sudanese officials insisted that even though oil exports constitutes 98% of Juba’s revenue, they are capable of surviving until an alternative pipeline is built. They also stress that just as much as the people of South Sudan were able to live through a long and devastating civil war with the north they could manage few years of economic hardships.

بعد شجار مر حول رسوم الخدمات التي يجب أن تدفعها جوبا للخرطوم، أتخذ جنوب السودان قراراً أحادياً بوقف إنتاج البترول رداً علي مصادرة السودان جزء من البترول المخصص للتصدير لتعويض ما تقول أنه متأخرات رسوم مرور.

المسؤلون في جنوب السودان يصرون أنه حتي لو كان تصدير البترول يشكل 98٪ من مواردهم، يستطيعون البقاء حتي بناء خط أنابيب بديل. كذلك يؤكدون مثلما عاشوا خلال الحرب الطويلة المدمرة، يستطيعون التصرف خلال سنوات قادمة من الصعوبات الأقتصادية.

Quote: But a briefing by a senior World Bank official on March 1st obtained by Sudan Tribune paints a very bleak picture of what awaits South Sudan’s economy in the months ahead. "[T]he World Bank has never seen a satiation as dramatic as the one faced by South Sudan," the World Bank’s Director of Economic Policy and Poverty Reduction gl for Africa Marcelo Giugale is quoted as telling representatives of the major donor groups including the United States, United Kingdom, European Union (EU), Norway and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) among others. The same presentation was given to the top officials in South Sudan on February 29, 2012. Giugale told the donors that neither South Sudan president Salva Kiir nor senior member of his cabinet "were aware of the economic implications of the [oil] shutdown". According to the transcript, the World Bank official "candidly said that the decision was shocking and that officials present had not internalized nor understood the consequences of the decision".

ولكن تنويراً من مسئول كبير في البنك الدولي صدر في أول مارس تحصلت عليه سودان تربيون يشير الي مصير مظلم جداً ينتظر إقتصاد جنوب السودان في الشهور القادمة. " لم يشهد البنك الدولي علي الإطلاق وضعاً دراماتيكياً مثل الذي يواجه جنوب السودان" هكذا قيل عن مدير السياسات الإقتصادية و تقليل الفقر في أفريقياً بالبنك الدولي مارسيلو جويقيل وهو يخاطب ممثلي الدول المانحة التي شملت الولايات المتحدة،بريطانيا، الإتحاد الأوربي، النرويج، و صندوق النقد الدولي و آخرين. نفس هذا الكلام قدم لمسؤلين في حكومة جنوب السودان في 29/02/2012.

وقال جويقيل للمانحين لا الرئيس سالفاكير و لا كبار أعضاء مجلس
يعرفون التداعيات الإقتصادية لوقف إنتاج البترول.

و حسب نص حديث مسئول البنك فقد كان القرار كان صادماً، و المسئولين لم يتفكروا و يفهموا تداعياته.

Quote: South Sudan is a unique and unprecedented situation globally, Giugale said because "countries in crisis usually face a collapse in growth rather than of GDP". As a result of "sharp" drop in influx of hard currency and once citizens in South Sudan realize that value of their local currency is slipping "there will be a run for the dollars and families with dollars will almost certainly shift them outside the country". Giugale pointed out that because most South Sudanese are not fully financial literate the run on the point has not yet happened. "Once it starts, the currency will almost certainly collapse," Giugale says.

جنوب السودان حالة فريدة يقول جويقيل حيث عادة في حالات الدول التي تمر بكورث ينهار النمو الإقتصادي و ليس الناتج القومي كما حالة جنوب السودان.
كنتيجة للإنخفاض الحاد في تدفق العملات الصعبة و بمجرد وعي المواطنين بإنخفاض قيمة العملة المحلية سيسرع الناس نحو الدولار و مؤكداً ستستبدل العائلات التي تمتلك الدرلارات أموالها خارج البلد
و أشار جويقيل أن هذا لم يحدث مباشرة لأن معظم المواطنين الجنوبيين ليسوا متمكنين بعد في الأمور المالية. و بمجرد ما يبدأ بالتأكيد ستنهار العملة.

Quote: The World Bank official went on to analyze the situation of South Sudan’s foreign reserves and it is estimated that even with austerity measures adopted by the government in Juba, depletion of reserves can occur by next July "at which point state collapse becomes a real possibility". If South Sudan takes the drastic measure of cutting monthly spending by 77%, the reserves can only last until December 2013.

و مضي مسئول البنك الدولي في تحليل وضع إحتياطيات العملات الصعبة الخاصة بجنوب السودان و هي متوفع نفادها يوليو القادم حتي مع الإجراءت التقشفية التي تبنتها حكومة الجنوب. " وقتها إنهيار الدولة سيكون إحتمالاً وارداً".و لو إتخذ جنوب السودان الإجراء الأكثر تطرفاً بخفض الإنفاق الشهري بنسبة 77٪، سينفد الإحتياطي في ديسمبر 2013.

Quote: Social impact of the oil shutdown is no less daunting as Giugale points out. The percentage of population in living in poverty will jump from 51% in 2012 to 83% in 2013. In gross numbers 3.6 million more people will fall below the poverty line. Under-five child mortality will double from 10% live births in 2012 to 20% in 2013 and school enrollment will drop from 50% to 20% over the same time period. Giugale also dismissed arguments made by South Sudanese officials that a large percentage of the population will be immune from the impact because it is not part of the cash economy. "Even the poorest households interact with the cash economy during the three-five month hunger gap through some form of trade, usually livestock. The terms of trade for livestock (goats and cattle) will depreciate sharply against imported staple food commodities pushing millions of households out of the market and deepening food insecurity. This is likely to occur at the height of the planting and harvest season, with profound implications for the next two-three productive cycles" Giugale says.

الآثار الإجتماعية لوقف إنتاج البترول ليس أقل صعوبة كما يشير جويقيل.
حيث سترتفع نسبة الفقراء من 51٪ الي 83٪ في عام 2013. و آعداد الفقراء ستزداد بانضمام 3.6 مليون نسمة للذين تحت خط الفقر.

وفيات الأطقال تحت سن الخامسة سيزداد من 10٪ من كل ولادة لطفل حي عام 2012 ل20٪ حالة عام 20103. في نفس الفترة سيتناقص عدد الأطفال الذين يسجلون في المدارس من 50٪ الي 20٪.

وأيضاً تجاهل جويقيل وقلل من محاججة المسئولين في جنوب السودان أن نسبة كبيرة من المواطنين لن يتأثروا بوقع هذه الصعوبات لانهم يعيشون خارج دائرة الإقتصاد النقدي " حتي أفقر الأسر أثناء فترة الجوع (عدم وجود الأنتاج الزراعي؟) تتفاعل بالنقد في شكل نوع ما من التجارة غالباً بيع الحيوانات. وستقل قيمة الحيوانات مقارنة بالسلع الغذائية المستوردة و هذا سيدفع بملايين الأسر الي خارج السوق و يضاعف و يعمق من إنعدام الأمن الغذائي و قد يحدث في أوج زمن الزراعة و الحصاد وسيؤثر بشكل سلبي جداً علي أثنين أو ثلاثة دورات إنتاجية قادمة" يقول جويقيل.

لا بدائل مناسبة
الخيارات أمام جنوب السودان محدودة جداً وهي تطبيق إجراءات تقشفية قاسية و تأسيس برنامج شبكة سلامة أجتماعية. حتي لو زادت جوبا العوائد غير البترولية ثلاثة أضعاف، كما يتوقعون، أثر ذلك سيكون هامشياً.
وصرح جويقيل بأن تحليل البنك الدولي ربما يسرع بمعدلات أصلاح الخدمة المدنية الشئ الذي لم يكن ممكناً من قبل. و لمنه حزر من أن إنهيار الإقتصاد قد يؤدي الي تفتت إجتماعي، سياسي، و توتر و عدم الإستقرار.


مجموعة الجي6 من المانحين ردت علي هذه الوقائع بتحذير جنوب السودان بأنها لن تسد الفجوة المالية الناتجة عن إيقاف أنتاج البترول و إذا إستمر الوضع الحالي لن تستطيع تمويل البرامج التي طلبتها جوبا." نتوقع إعادة توجيه برامجنا لحماية الضعفاء و تدخلات منقذة للحياة.لا نستـطيع بالأضافة لهذا تنفيذ إستراتيجية المساعدات التي أتفق عليها " قا ل المانحون.
و ناشد والمانحون جنوب السودان بحل مشكلة تصدير النفط مع الخرطوم ليتمكنوا من بناء قدراتهم و مؤسساتهم.

مجلس الأمن أمر الدولتين بالرجوع للمفاوضات خلال أسبوعين و التوصل لحلول عدة مواضيع من بينها النفط خلال 4 أشهر.

أي من الطرفين قد يتعرض لعقوبات إذا فشل في التجاوب و التعاون مع الوسطاء، كما جاء في قرار مجلي الأمن.

Quote: No Viable Alternatives The options before South Sudan are very limited and include implementation of severe austerity measures and establishing social safety net programs. Even if Juba were to triple non-oil revenue as they project its impact will be "negligible" the World Bank official says. Giugale stated that the World Bank analysis might help speed up reforms within South Sudan civil service that were otherwise not possible. But he cautioned that an economic collapse "could result in social and political fragmentation, unrest and instability". The G-6 donors group reacted to the World Bank finding by issuing a warning to South Sudan government that they are not prepared to fill the fiscal gap and as the situation continues they will not support the programs asked for by Juba. "We anticipate a reorientation of our programs to protect the vulnerable, focused on life saving interventions. We cannot additionally implement the aid strategies that have been agreed upon," the donors said. South Sudan is urged by the donors to resolve the current standoff with Khartoum over the oil exports in order to build its institutions and capacity. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Wednesday ordered north and south Sudan to return to negotiations within two weeks and resolve several issues including oil within four months. Any side that fails to comply or cooperate with mediation could face sanctions, according to the UNSC resolution. (ST)

لا بدائل قابلة للحياة
الخيارات أمام جنوب السودان محدودة جداً وهي تطبيق إجراءات تقشفية قاسية و تأسيس برنامج شبكة سلامة أجتماعية. حتي لو زادت جوبا العوائد غير البترولية ثلاثة أضعاف، كما يتوقعون، أثر ذلك سيكون هامشياً.
وصرح جويقيل بأن تحليل البنك الدولي ربما يسرع بمعدلات أصلاح الخدمة المدنية الشئ الذي لم يكن ممكناً من قبل. و لمنه حزر من أن إنهيار الإقتصاد قد يؤدي الي تفتت إجتماعي، سياسي، و توتر و عدم الإستقرار.


مجموعة الجي6 من المانحين ردت علي هذه الوقائع بتحذير جنوب السودان بأنها لن تسد الفجوة المالية الناتجة عن إيقاف أنتاج البترول و إذا إستمر الوضع الحالي لن تستطيع تمويل البرامج التي طلبتها جوبا." نتوقع إعادة توجيه برامجنا لحماية الضعفاء و تدخلات منقذة للحياة.لا نستـطيع بالأضافة لهذا تنفيذ إستراتيجية المساعدات التي أتفق عليها " قا ل المانحون.
و ناشد والمانحون جنوب السودان بحل مشكلة تصدير النفط مع الخرطوم ليتمكنوا من بناء قدراتهم و مؤسساتهم.

مجلس الأمن أمر الدولتين بالرجوع للمفاوضات خلال أسبوعين و التوصل لحلول عدة مواضيع من بينها النفط خلال 4 أشهر.

أي من الطرفين قد يتعرض لعقوبات إذا فشل في التجاوب و التعاون مع الوسطاء، كما جاء في قرار مجلس الأمن.

ورد البنك الدولي أناه علي عرض سودان تربيون لتحليل البنك الدولي و نوه الي أن الصحيفة أساءت عرض التحليل و لمن لم تقل كيف !!
World Bank responds to Sudan Tribune’s story

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May 7, 2012 (WASHINGTON) – The World Bank on Monday issued a response to Sudan Tribune’s story ’EXCLUSIVE: South Sudan economy on the verge of collapse, World Bank warns’ published yesterday.

The World Bank has been working actively in South Sudan since 2005 to provide early assistance, given its urgent development needs. As part of our support, the Bank provides technical and economic analysis to the government, and recently provided an assessment of the economic situation as requested by the Government of South Sudan.

Your story yesterday misrepresents the nature and content of the dialogue between the World Bank and the Government and development partners. The World Bank is deeply concerned with the economic and development impact of the unresolved oil issues and how this will affect the people of both South Sudan and Sudan, particularly the most vulnerable.

The ongoing dialogue between the World Bank and South Sudan focuses on positive steps that can be taken to manage the different economic scenarios arising out of its oil dispute with Sudan.

The World Bank Group will continue to work closely with both South Sudan and Sudan to support the countries through their economic difficulties, focusing on economic resilience, protection of vulnerable people from economic hardship, as well as longer term development needs. Given the desperate living situation being faced by people in both Sudan and South Sudan, the World Bank’s economic analysis unambiguously shows that it is in the interests of both countries to resume talks urgently and resolve their ongoing dispute over oil payments and other issues peacefully.

Lillian Foo

Communications Officer,

Africa Region

The World Bank Group

+1 (202) 458.7726

[email protected]