هوي يا ناس حقك تلاوي .. الإنتباهة جابت ليكم الأكيدة .. حقكم راح ..

Quote: ANALYSTS SCEPTICAL Analysts said a Kenya pipeline would be difficult to build across rough terrain hit by tribal violence and also passing through bandit-stricken regions in western Kenya. South Sudan has said it would cost around $1.5 billion, but analysts say a hefty insurance premium would have to be added because of the security concerns. Forecasts for dwindling supply from over pumped fields could further complicate the argument for the project. "It would be really difficult," said Dana Wilkins at Global Witness, who had done extensive research on South Sudan's oil industry. "We're looking at least a year or two because of the length of the pipeline, the terrain it has to cover and security concerns in the region." A route from oil blocks 3 and 7 in Upper Nile run by a consortium of mainly Chinese firms which produce 250,000 bpd would mean a pipeline of about 500 kilometres while one from Juba to Lamu would run to 1,260 km, Wilkins said. The project would also require building two central processing facilities for fields in the Unity and Upper Nile states since the existing one is on the Sudan side of the border, she said. SUPPLY OUTLOOK Oil insiders have questioned the economic viability of a pipeline in the medium-term as output is expected to fall sharply in coming years because some fields were over pumped by Khartoum in the run-up to South Sudan's independence. South Sudan output will decline to 200,000 bpd by 2016, to 160,000 by 2018 and further thereafter, according to estimates by the European Coalition on Oil in Sudan, which is comprised of research groups, non-governmental organisations and activists. Some analysts say a pipeline would be viable only if new finds were made, but exploration efforts in the vast Jonglei state have been hampered by tribal violence. France's Total holds a concession in Jonglei which is largely unused due to violence which has killed hundreds in the past few weeks alone. "Production in Upper Nile peaked in 2010, Unity in 2005. Even if major new fields were discovered today, it could be years before they come online in a real way," Wilkins said.