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 Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية (Re: Souad Taj-Elsir)
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The disintegration of the Sudanese State
Dec 27, 2010 Ayman Ibrahim
http://www.suite101.com/content/the-disintegration-of-t...danese-state-a324908
A new "development" in Sudanese politics must be given due attention because it will have an important impact on the future of the country
The date of the referendum on self-determination of the southern Sudan, scheduled for January 9, 2011, is fast approaching. If it arrives and separation takes place, which is the more probable prospect, the establishment of the two new states will offset a dangerous situation at which points of divergence will outweigh points of convergence and will thus poison the airs at the beginning of the new stage.
It has become very clear for everyone that the split of country is inevitable, and, therefore, what decides the destiny of peace in region is addressing the pending issues that include sharing of assets and debts, citizens, oil, the Nile water, international agreements and borders. The list is a long one. It has sideline branches that require provision of information and studies and seeking the guidance of international rules and tenets and all the talks conducted so far on dimensions of the problems.
These issues have humanitarian, social and economic dimensions that touch the lives of millions of citizens both in the North and the South. These issues cannot be decided in the absence of these citizens; there has to rise a voice that defends their rights while split of the country is not a run-of-the-mill event imposed by a limited group without consideration of the interests of those broad bases.
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Split of a country….or a share-out between two partners?
The two ruling parties in Sudan – the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) – deal with the issues of Sudan as if the country has become their own private property.
The future of Sudan is a concern of all the people of Sudan, and the case of national unity and the unity of Sudan has been greatly disserved by the two partners monopoly of that case. They totally exclude the others while each party is adamant on monopolizing decisions, absenting the other northern and southern forces.
All parties are now focusing on holding the referendum on schedule, as if the referendum has become an end in itself, instead of being a means for establishment of a new situation.
Split of a country into two states is not a mere act of segmentation where each party run their own affairs; it rather affects all aspects of life in a land whose people have been unified for decades. Countries that faced the same experience had suffered more from the problems of separation than they had from those of unity. We will eventually discover that every pending issue we ignore today will turn into a time bomb that may go off at any moment.
A new resource that could lead towards disintegration
This is represented in extracting, marketing and collecting the revenues of Sudanese oil. If that had not taken place, southern citizens would not have voted for separation and establishment of the independent state of the South Sudan because the South does not have any other exports whose revenues can be relied upon to run the affairs of that state. The Government of the South is fully reliant on oil revenues that constitute 98% of its resources.
The legitimate question to ask in this respect is: Will the new resource become a factor for disintegration of the old Sudanese state and will it fuel the already existent conflicts? Will the new impending discoveries lead to more conflicts and confrontations?
All the Sudanese political forces and the international community have to take into consideration the fact that is the split of the country is inevitable.
Therefore, the cooperation between the two states is imperative as it is imposed by realities on the ground because the oil produced in the South can only be exported via the North to be thereafter transported to international markets. Even if the South contemplates exporting oil via Kenya, it will still need 3-5 years to install a new pipeline though many international parties have advised the South that exporting oil via the North will be more feasible at the long run, refusing justification for a new pipeline across East Africa. But which party possesses the present pipeline?
There is no doubt that the pipeline is a common asset in which the South has a share, but the question is: How much is that share and on what basis do the people of the South calculate that their share as 30% of that pipeline by virtue of area and the number of population?
This is one example for differences over details that beset the problem which is also applicable on the issue of debts and the other pending issues. This will render the talks prolonged and difficult.
The details of these talks will witness the intervention of international organizations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and countries that played a marked role in the peace agreement. Previous experiences of countries that witnessed splits, such as Yugoslavia, have established that these talks may take years on end and require mutual concessions and pressures to be levered here and there.
Therefore, there is no justification for the optimistic trend on speedy resolution of some of these issues that have immediate impact on the interests of citizens, such as the border issue, and issues that are associated with the daily lives of citizens such as herding and agriculture.
These are urgent issues that do not allow time for waiting and haggling since they can threaten stability in vast regions of the country and create tense atmospheres of uncalculated consequences.
That is the challenge that lurks in these pending issues and their impact on sustainability of peace. If the fundamental objective of the peace agreement and the self-determination is sustainability of peace, these pending issues will defeat that person if they remain unresolved for a prolonged period of time and may reverse us to the war square.
The matter then calls for address these pending issues with due seriousness and concern by forming joint mechanisms for running the dispute until the required solutions have been decided on, without leaving behind a 'gap' that can be filled with tensions and congestions.
These issues will determine the future of peace and stability in Sudan and the whole region. But, the two partners are, unfortunately, heedless of the crucial nature of this matter because they are immersed in marginal issues that do not address this case which will certainly erupt if they continue to ignore it. The country will split into many pieces. When the South secedes from the North, it will not be the last but could be followed by many regions that will demand the right of self-determination also in a manner similar to the south.
http://www.suite101.com/content/the-disintegration-of-t...danese-state-a324908
Copyright Ayman Ibrahim. Contact the author to obtain permission for republication.
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الكاتب |
Date |
 قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-04-11, 10:45 AM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-04-11, 11:03 AM |
 Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | شكرى سليمان ماطوس | 01-04-11, 11:21 AM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-04-11, 12:25 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-04-11, 01:08 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-04-11, 05:24 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | محمد أحمد الريح | 01-04-11, 06:33 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-04-11, 08:08 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-04-11, 11:25 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-06-11, 08:49 AM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-06-11, 09:30 AM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-06-11, 09:43 AM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-06-11, 09:43 AM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-06-11, 06:04 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Abdlaziz Eisa | 01-06-11, 07:07 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-07-11, 01:20 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Abdlaziz Eisa | 01-07-11, 03:43 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-08-11, 01:22 PM |
| Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-12-11, 03:30 PM |
 Re: قيادي معارض لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: نحذر من يوغوسلافيا سودانية | Souad Taj-Elsir | 01-23-11, 08:22 PM |
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Souad Taj-Elsir
فيس بوك
تويتر
انستقرام
يوتيوب
بنتيريست