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 Re: اخيرا باراك اوباما في مدينتنا اشفييل- نورث كارولاينا يوم الاحد 5/10 (Re: Elmoiz Abunura)
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Presidential Polls: Who Is Ahead in the All-Important Electoral College?
Oct. 7, 2008
Richard Kaplan--HispanicBusiness.com
If the presidential elections was held today, and not in one month, presidential polls say that Sen. Barack Obama would score a surprisingly lopsided victory in the electoral college over his opponent Sen. John McCain. The very latest polls conducted on a state-by-state basis indicate that Sen. Obama would win with 326 electoral votes compared to 188 for Sen. McCain, with one state -- Colorado -- currently too close to call.
Since the victory of President George W. Bush in 2004, seven states that were claimed by the Republicans in that close race are now currently leaning to the Democrats -- Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. None of the states won by Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004 are leaning Republican. Certainly, many of the state races are extremely tight and the leader is shifting from one poll to the next. Furthermore, there are two vigorous debates to go, many millions of dollars to be spent on ads both misleading and factual, and many babies to be kissed before this exceedingly long campaign is put to rest on November 4.
What states can reasonably be considered to be still in play? Classifying the states by those where the lead be either candidate is 5 percent or less, then eight states with a total of 111 electoral votes are still up for grabs: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia. Without those states, Sen. Obama's leads 264 votes to Sen. McCain's 163 in the race to get the magic number of 270. From this perspective, Sen. Obama just needs one more state out of the eight in contention to win. Sen. McCain however needs at least seven.
Polls on seven states were released on Monday. They were: Virginia, Obama 53%, McCain 43%; Georgia, McCain 50%, Obama 43%; North Carolina, Obama 50%, McCain 44%; New Hampshire, Obama 53%, McCain 40%; Virginia, Obama 51%, McCain 39%; Pennsylvania, Obama 49%, McCain 38%; New Mexico, Obama 45%, McCain 40%.
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Elmoiz Abunura
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