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 سيناريو افتراضي بقلم اكاديمي ماليزي :The President of Sudan, Omer al-Bashir Was Arrested Last n
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The President of Sudan, Omer al-Bashir Was Arrested Last night. Believe it or Not!
The President of Sudan, Omer al-Bashir Was Arrested Last night. Believe it or Not!
The President of Sudan, Omer al-Bashir Was Arrested Last night. Believe it or NOT!
Hasan Yahya, Ph.D
I woke up this morning to read this: President of Sudan Omar al-Bashir plane was high jacked by mysterious forces and directed to undisclosed place in the Mediterranean to be handed to the ICC court.” End of the News.
First I did not believe the news, it may be another propaganda, so I opened the TV on al-Jazeera, the news are right, the president of Sudan was kidnapped. I di not believe that, so I switched the news to the CNN, the same incident is announced but with more flavors of justice and arrogance. The president Omer al-Bashir of Sudan was high jacked while he was in his trip to Qatar, to attend the Arab Summit. When I heard the news, my reaction as intellectual was a million questions pops-up in my mind other than : Who did it? And How it was done? Which I believe are urgent to know, but it is not important to know who and How, but to know what the reaction and the consequences worldwide would be? I mean locally, regionally, and globally!
In the last few months the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir for war crimes in Darfur, a decision that could spark more regional turmoil. The warrant is the first issued against a sitting head of state by the Hague-based ICC, which stopped short of including a count of genocide over a conflict that United Nations officials say has killed as many as 300,000 people since 2003. This was the main accusation, without saying what type of weapons used, or from what resources, or who brought the accusations in the first place, and why Sudan? And why Omar al-Bashir himself? Not those who execute the alleged terrorist actions?
China does not need now to urge suspension of Sudanese president ‘s arrest warrant. Omar al-Bashir finally caught by justice. What would be the reaction? And what level of discussion might take place? Is it at the one state level, such as the Sudanese, the Qataris, the Saudis, China, France, the USA, and Israel level? Or the regional level, such as the Middle East, Arab countries, Muslim countries, European level? Or the level of analysis would be on organizational level, the ICC, the OIC, the AU, the EU, the NATO, the UN level? Or on the religious level as crusades and Islamists, and Jewish faiths ? or the Muslim Brothers level. Or the ideological level, the communist or the capitalist level? Or scientific and logical level, where assumptions are not true unless proved true. This is a hypothetical article by the way. But the scenarios will clear for al-Jazeerah, BBC, and CNN.
The ICC may thank countries party to the Rome Statute that set up the court and United Nations member nations for their support in the arrest. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may tell reporters: I said it before, “Governments and individuals who either conduct or condone atrocities of any kind, as we have seen year after year in Sudan, have to be held accountable.” Therefore she may say: “I am personally and officially, pleased with the arrest.”
Expected posters for comments will say: Sudan is only being targeted because it is a poor, African state. US & UK invaded Iraq (and are still there now), Israel has been committing crimes for the whole of it’s existence, yet these countries appear to be immune. Until the ICC is impartial for all, I understand the Sudanese government’s (or another country) reluctance to acknowledge it. Other extremists may suggest and may call for violence and say: “Arab Gulf Boys should stop this Moreno Ocampo defile the name of Sudan again!” Others may say: The world has failed Sudan – especially people of Darfur! The arrest of Bashir will be a belated wake-up signal to all despots that the world does not condone genocide. To do nothing would be a sign that the world approves of the well documented murderous campaigns of ethnic cleansing
The GCC includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will comment: On Sudan the GCC statement lauded Qatari effort in bringing the warring Darfuri parties to the negotiation table expressing hope that it will be the beginning of political efforts to end the crisis. But now the efforts should be doubled after the arrest.
Khartoum and Darfur Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) signed a declaration of goodwill expressing their willingness to engage in peace process, three years following the rebel group’s rejection of the Abuja deal in May 2006. But now the circumstances have changed.
The GCC still insist on its statement, which omitted any reference to an imminent decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on a war crimes case against president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir.
China, the African Union and the Arab League suggested an indictment could destabilize the region, worsen the Darfur conflict and threaten a troubled peace deal between north Sudan and the semi-autonomous south — potentially rich in oil.
And what about the demonstrations against the high jacking of a legitimate president against the well of his people? Demonstrations will be seen in south East Asia communities after Jum’a prayer, Some human NGO human rights activists may call the incident as an attack on human rights of the president of Sudan. And call for consensus on the warrant arrest to be lawful. One might say: the damage as a consequence of the arrest is much more than the warrant. I will leave the rest of the specialist or propagandists comments for the news channels: al-Jazeerah, BBC, and CNN.
Now, it is too late, to postpone or even to discard the warrant arrest. President of Sudan, Omer al-Bashir is in the hands of the COURT now? So the most urgent question would be: What are the Consequences of such act might be locally, regionally, and globally? This article will only try to give scenarios for the consequences.
On the local level: Rumors will fill the media east and west about certain involvement of three forces may be involved in the high jacking operation. One is NATO, the other is Israel, and the third is everyone else [various inside and outside enemies] . So some minority groups in Sudan will be under attack if their government was involved. Demonstrations will fill the Sudanese streets. The Parliament of Sudan will convene to decide actions diplomatically and otherwise. The most happy person may be, will be Hasan al-Turabi and his party, some people think! But he will not be invited to rule Sudan, because global powers may stand against his appeal too! The act of arrest itself does not respect the Sudanese autonomy or independence. Or respect Arabs or Muslims. Others will say, it is a conspiracy against Islam. Other will find something to play with in the following days. As a result, some neighbors of Sudan [may be innocent civilians will be hurt] will be hurt for emotional actions, and may be more Red Cross Aid Organizations will be kicked out of Sudan without mercy by suspicion. The problem would be for Sudan NOW, is to find replacement for the president. Whether it was a propaganda as some like to believe and publicized or a real accusation, is no more the question now? What are the hidden goals behind the warrant arrest are also irrelevant? The bird is finally in the cage of the ICC now is a fact.
What is expected then if the news were true then? On the Saudi Level, the government will be disturbed by the news, and will send messages to deny air piracy as it did against sea piracy. It will support any action taken in Qatar Summit. Furthermore, it may call for the OIC summit to discuss the arrest and how to face such illegal action.
Qatar will say that they cannot secure the President safety outside its borders, so it is not her fault, but it will call for the already convened Arab Summit, to take decisions concerning the kidnapping of the president of Sudan. Their decision will not change any thing, But Arabs existed or not, in the world arena, their decisions are useless. Or not respected as they hope. One of the decisions is to send a message to the ICC to have mercy on the accused and to the UN, to let the Security Council convene to discuss the matter. Arab Leaders will act as pigeons for peace, otherwise they will be accused as their Sudanese brethren , because the ICC decisions are not jokes. It is a damn reality, so beware Arab Leaders, some thing is prepared for any one who may disunite his goals with global powers.
Israel will deny any involvement in the high jacking but support the ICC decision to arrest the leader of Sudan. No one will believe Israel anyway! The Muslim OIC organization will imitate Qatar’s message to the UN And will show that it was disturbed by the arrest. I think The Family of the President will be the most disturbed by kidnapping the president for sure, but what can they do? Expected commenting on the arrest will fill the internet sites, the newspapers, and a debate will be in high steam between supporters of the kidnapping and rejecters of such piracy.
What would be the reaction if the arrest happened? On the regional and Global levels is to be heard and may be watched. I will leave the answer for the news channels to deal with. We are waiting! Don’t you! (1626 words)
Hasan Yahya is a professor of Sociology, and a columnist at wfol.tv, Malaysia, and TINA International News Agency, Chicago, USA. www.hasanyahya.com[/B]
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